h" debate performances, the GOP "establishment" faces a choice: they can cross their fingers and hope for the best or mount a sustained negative campaign to destroy Perry with the party's base. It is likely that, after Labor Day, a sustained negative campaign against Perry will be launched.The sewage flood-gates have already opened, to some degree. For the past few months,tommy hilfiger polo, Washington bureau chiefs of major news organizations have been inundated with rumors of Perry's alleged personal indiscretions and peccadilloes. And virtually every major news organization has some kind of "investigative team" looking into allegations of "pay to play" and other forms of corruption. If all that that amounts to are some negative articles in The Washington Post and The New York Times, Perry won't be harmed. It will take something serious, something big and proven to bring him down.In the meantime,tommy club, Perry has the luxury of thinking nationally. As President Obama's political standing continues to erode, the "electability" hurdle gets lower. The base is beginning to think that anyone can beat Obama. And there is already talk that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are Perry's top two choices for vice president. This has GOP activists nearly giddy with glee. A Perry-Christie ticket would be more than electable; it would be formidable. It would also bring the GOP "establishment" back inside his tent, which is where Perry wants them and needs them to be.The real test, then, will be the five upcoming debates. If Perry does well enough in those to convince the base that he can command the national stage, then the caucus and primary season won't be long. It'll be over before you know it. To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog. 600px wide (preview) John Ellis is the editor of Ellisblog and was the founding editor of Business Insider's Politix. Contact:The 11 Most Heartless Amendments To The Immigration Bill   A Guide To Avoiding Businesses With Dangerous Working Conditions   Heritage Study Author: ‘Hispanic Immigrants Will Have Low-IQ Children’ Alan Krueger is the lead author of every progressive pundit s favorite empirical study of the minimum wage, showing that across some important real-world margins in the United States, it doesn t have the effect that would be predicted from modeling a friction-free fully competitive marketplace. But I think the main lesson to take away from this is that the guy President Obama wants to bring back on board is a specialist in micro-scale labor market inefficiencies. What s the difference? Well, nationwide we have a massive plague of idle resources — unemployed workers, and unused facilities — to which the largest contributor is insufficient aggregate demand. This big chunk of inefficiency ( Okun Gap ) is what fiscal and monetary stimulus are all about. You call in Christina Romer if you want to tackle these problems.But as I said over the weekend, there are also other things going on. Washington, DC features plenty of vacant storefronts and plenty of unemployed workers who lack bachelors degrees alongside robust unmet demand for bars and restaurants due to restricting liquor licensing. I m not familiar with any Krueger work specifically on liquor licenses, but this kind of thing — small scale inefficiencies in the labor market — is the main focus of his work. That minimum wage paper showed that the theoretically predicted minimum wage inefficiency wasn t there. But he also has his series of papers with Morris Kleiner about occupational licensing, a series of papers (of which this PDF is the most recent) casting doubt on the efficacy of Sweden s Active Labor Market Policies, a few papers looking at time-use data to understand what the unemployed do,tommy men, etc. These are important issues to study since clearly in the aggregate if you add up every petty inefficient regulation in America,tommy Children, it s a big deal. And I d say it s an especially big deal in a time like 2006 when the economy doesn t suffer from elevated unemployment but
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